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| Biafrans watch excitedly, Nigeria panics as Catalans and Kurds prepare to declare independence from Spain and Iraq |
The map of the world is about to change in the next couple of weeks. Catalonia is preparing to conduct an independence referendum in the next ten days afterwhich it will declare independence from Spain. Down in the Middle East the Kurdish people will be conducting an independence referendum in the next four days. All indicators point towards votes in Catalonia and Kurdistan goingbe massively in favour of independence. The prospect are causing deep worry to Spanish and Iraqi governments.
Biafrans are keenly watching the developments in both regions, excited at the prospects of the emergence of two new countries into the world stage from the clutches of the oppressors. However, Nigeria is scared stiff of the prospects of the new countries that will emerge as it would beam an intense searchlight on the government's heavy-handedness in dealing with Biafrans currently agitating for the independence of Biafra.
4 Key Points about the Kurdistan Independence Vote - Forbes
- Israel is the first country in the Middle East to voice its support for an independent Kurdistan.
- If the Kurds do declare and maintain independence within the borders that the KRG currently controls, Kurdistan’s oil industry would be among the top 10 largest in OPEC
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Iraqi Kurds fly Kurdish flags during an event to urge people to vote in the upcoming independence referendum in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. (SAFIN HAMED/AFP/Getty Images) |
The KRG currently controls 20% of Iraq’s oil resources.
If the Kurds do declare and maintain independence within the borders that the KRG currently controls, Kurdistan’s oil industry would be among the top 10 largest in OPEC . This makes Kurdistan an important player in the oil market. The KRG has already demonstrated its desire to use its oil resources to build alliances with its neighbors and international players. However, there are many uncertainties when it comes to the oil market. Would an independent Kurdistan seek to increase oil production in order to fund its fledgling government? Would Turkey try to crush an independent Kurdistan by disrupting the the Ceyhan pipeline, through which most Kurdish oil exports flow? Would OPEC invite an independent Kurdistan to join the cartel and risk angering Iraq in the process?
The Vote Could Still Be Called Off
International Opposition To An Independent Kurdistan Is Mixed
Iraq’s supreme court ordered the KRG to call off the referendum on the grounds that it violates Iraq’s constitution. According to Arab News, Kurdish lawmakers will meet with lawmakers in Baghdad to discuss the situation, and they may decide to cancel the vote. Late on Tuesday, September 19, Kurdish President Masoud Barzani said he would not postpone the vote without a guarantee of independence from Baghdad. However, this move could anger the Kurdish people, who are very excited about the referendum and, as a whole, support their people’s national determination. Many predominantly Kurdish cities, like Kirkuk, have seen an explosion of pro-Kurdish independence sentiment as the referendum date has approached.
International Opposition To An Independent Kurdistan Is Mixed
Israel is the first country in the Middle East to voice its support for an independent Kurdistan. Support for an independent Kurdistan is strong among the Israeli public, and Israel and the KRG have strong economic ties. It is believed that since 2015, Israel has imported up to 77% of its oil from the KRG.
The United Nations opposes the vote and called on Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani to instead enter into negotiations with Baghdad with the aim of reaching a deal in the next three years.
The United States has come out strongly against the KRG’s proposed referendum. The United States urged the KRG to cancel the referendum and called the vote a distraction from the ongoing fight against Islamic State. This statement came after the State Department and Department of Defense spent weeks trying to dissuade the KRG from holding the vote. On the other hand, the U.S. has long supported Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the fight against Islamic State. These forces are key to the military positions the KRG has taken in prominent cities like Kirkuk that could be essential to future independence and statehood.
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| Masked Kurdish forces, loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party, stand guard at the North Oil Company headquarters in the northern Kurdish-controlled city of Kirkuk. (MARWAN IBRAHIM/AFP/Getty Images) |
Russia’s position is even more nuanced. Russia has previously made statements indicating it supports Kurdish independence, though it has not clearly stated its stance on the September 25 referendum. Russian energy giant, Rosneft, recently announced a billion-dollar investment in natural gas pipelines in Kurdistan, which will provide Kurdistan key financial and economic support if it does decide to separate from Iraq.
Regional Opposition Is Also Mixed
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| Iraq's Kurdistan region president Massed Barzani (L) shakes hands with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq. (AFIN HAMED/AFP/Getty Images) |
Turkey has long opposed an independent Kurdistan and considers the Kurdish nationalist party within Turkey, the PKK, a terrorist organization. Turkey officially opposes the vote. In fact, Turkey staged tank drills on its border with Iraqi Kurdistan on Monday as a sign of its opposition. However, Turkey has long had good relations with the KRG, especially when it comes to oil. Almost all of northern Iraq’s oil goes to ports in Turkey through an oil pipeline managed by Turkey. In 2016, the KRG even offered to sell Turkey a stake in their oil fields for $5 billion. Even though the Kurdish issue has long been a flashpoint for Turkish politics, Turkey’s growing role in the Kurdish oil industry has been lucrative for Turkey and does complicate the Turkish position on Kurdistan.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are taking a diplomatic position and have offered to mediate between the KRG and the Iraqi government in Baghdad. A Saudi delegation has already met with Barzani, who thanked the Saudis for their involvement but did not indicate whether he would suspend the referendum as a result. Saudi Arabia has had direct diplomatic relations with the KRG since January, 2016, when it opened a consulate in Erbil.
Kurdish Independence Could Shake Up Oil Markets
- Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D. is a historian & scholar of the energy industry. She consults on geopolitics & energy. Her book, Saudi, Inc., will be published in 2018 by Pegasus Books - CONTRIBUTOR Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Catalan leader presses on with banned vote on split from Spain - Reuters
MADRID/BARCELONA (Reuters) - The Catalan regional leader on Thursday said he would press on with an Oct. 1 referendum on a split from Spain, flouting a court ban, as tens of thousands gathered for a second day on the streets of Barcelona demanding the right to vote.
Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said he had contingency plans in place to ensure the vote would go ahead, directly defying Madrid and pushing the country closer to political crisis.
Spain’s Constitutional Court banned the vote earlier this month after Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said it violated Spain’s 1978 constitution, which states the country is indivisible. Most opposition parties are also against the vote.
“All the power of the Spanish state is set up to prevent Catalans voting,” Puigdemont said in a televised address.
“We will do it because we have contingency plans in place to ensure it happens, but above all because it has the support of the immense majority of the population, who are sick of the arrogance and abuse of the People’s Party government.”
On Thursday, tens of thousands gathered outside the seat of Catalonia’s top court in Barcelona, singing and banging drums, to protest the arrests of senior officials in police raids on regional government offices on Wednesday.
“This is a step back for democracy,” said one of them, 62-year-old pensioner Enric Farro. “This is the kind of thing that happened years ago - it shouldn’t be happening now.”
State police arrested Catalonia’s junior economy minister, Josep Maria Jove, on Wednesday in an unprecedented raid of regional government offices.
Acting on court orders, police have also raided printers, newspaper offices and private delivery companies in a search for campaign literature, instruction manuals for manning voting stations and ballot boxes.
Polls show about 40 percent of Catalans support independence for the wealthy northeastern region and a majority want a referendum on the issue. Puigdemont has said there is no minimum turnout for the vote and he will declare independence within 48 hours of a “yes” result.
A central government’s spokesman said protests in Catalonia were organized by a small group and did not represent the general feeling of the people.
“In those demonstrations, you see the people who go, but you don’t see the people who don’t go, who are way more and are at home because they don’t like what’s happening,” Inigo Mendez de Vigo said.
Mendez de Vigo also said an offer for dialogue from Madrid remained on the table. Repeated attempts to open negotiations between the two camps over issues such as taxes and infrastructure investment have failed over the past five years.
Rajoy said on Wednesday the government’s actions in Catalonia were the result of legal rulings and were to ensure the rule of law. The prime minister called on Catalan leaders to cancel the vote.
Hundreds of National Police and Guardia Civil reinforcements have been brought into Barcelona and are being billeted in two ferries rented by the Spanish government and moored in the harbor. But the central government must tread a fine line in enforcing the law in the region without seeming heavy-handed.
The stand-off between Catalonia and the central government resonates beyond Spain. The country’s EU partners publicly support Rajoy but worry that his hardline tactics might backfire .
In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, who heads the pro-independence devolved government, said she hoped the Catalan and Spanish governments could hold talks to resolve the situation.
In a referendum in 2014, Scots voted to remain within the United Kingdom.
- Julien Toyer, Sam Edwards
Writing by Sonya Dowsett; Additional reporting by Elizabeth O'Leary in Edinburgh, Editing by Larry King
Catalonia referendum: EU won't intervene in regional independence crisis in Spain - Independent
Statement comes as Spanish government cracks down on separatist officials believed to have organised secession vote
The European Union has signalled it is unlikely to intervene in the crisis unfolding in Spain over Catalan independence, saying it must respect the constitution of the country.
The Spanish government has said the planned referendum is illegal and on Wednesday arrested 14 senior officials, seized ballot papers and raided the homes of the Catalan separatists suspected of coordinating the vote, due to take place on 1 October.
The head of Catalonia’s pro-separatist government has claimed the national government’s actions amount to the creation of a “de facto state of emergency” in the region. Meanwhile, thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in support of Catalan secession.
Although the row has grown to become one of the country’s worst political crises since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s, the EU has indicated it will not mediate in the country.
A European Commission spokesperson said to reporters in Brussels: “The commission only has the powers which are given to it and when it comes to this position we have a position which goes back to 2004. It is not an improvised position; it is the result of the competences that we have a position that has been expressed by the President: we must respect the constitutional order and the legal framework of each member state.”
Pro-separatist group the Catalan National Assembly called for long-term street protests hours after the government’s Guardia Civil police arrested the Catalan officials.
The group, which has played a major role in the secession movement, has urged its supporters to gather outside the court where some of the arrested officials are being held and to bring tents if needed.
On Thursday, thousands of protesters congregated outside Catalonia’s judiciary body in Barcelona to demand the release of the arrested officials.
The assembly’s spokesman, Adria Alsina, said they would remain on the streets until “all the prisoners are released”.
Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy earlier told the separatist leaders to halt the “escalation” on Wednesday night as protesters remained on the streets of Barcelona following the day-long demonstration.
“Don’t go ahead. Go back to the law and democracy. This referendum is a chimera,” Mr Rajoy said in a televised statement.
“Stop this escalation of radicalism and disobedience once and for all,” he added.
Leaders of Spain’s main opposition Socialist party as well as the centre-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) party also warned Catalan leaders that “greater harm” lay ahead if they didn’t call off the vote.
Carles Puigdemont, the head of Catalonia’s pro-separatist government, described the raids as a “coordinated police assault”, and said the government’s actions to suspend the local government amounted to a “de facto state of emergency” in Catalonia.
In a series of tweets, he added, “we will not accept a return to the darkest times”, apparently alluding to General Franco’s dictatorship.
Mayor of Barcelona Ada Colau also criticised the state crackdown on Twitter, calling it a “democratic scandal”.
The crisis shows no sign of diminishing ahead of the proposed vote, with Spain’s interior ministry cancelling leave for all national police officers and the Guardia Civil from 20 September to 5 October, as the government aims to prevent the referendum taking place.
Late on Thursday Spain’s Constitutional Court said it would fine 22 members of an electoral board responsible for overseeing the planned referendum in Catalonia.
The board members will be fined between 6,000 and 12,000 euros a day as long as they continue to defy court orders suspending the vote.
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