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| Nigeria: The profile of a contemporary dying country |
"A country dies slowly.Those living during the decline of Rome were likely unaware that anything was happening. The decline took over a couple of hundred years. Anyone living during the decline only saw a small part of what was happening and likely never noticed it as anything other than ordinary." - 'Monty Pelerin'
Any keen observer of events in Nigeria would surely recognise that Nigeria is dying. The signs are there for all to see.
According 'Monty Pelerin', "countries do not have genetically determined life spans. Nor do they die quickly, unless the cataclysm of some great war does them in. Even in such extreme cases, there are usually warning signs, which are more obvious in hindsight than at the time. Few citizens of a dying nation recognise the signs. Most are too busy trying to live their lives, sometimes not an easy task. If death occupies their mind, it is with respect to themselves, a relative or a friend. Most cannot conceive of the death of a nation."
According 'Monty Pelerin', "countries do not have genetically determined life spans. Nor do they die quickly, unless the cataclysm of some great war does them in. Even in such extreme cases, there are usually warning signs, which are more obvious in hindsight than at the time. Few citizens of a dying nation recognise the signs. Most are too busy trying to live their lives, sometimes not an easy task. If death occupies their mind, it is with respect to themselves, a relative or a friend. Most cannot conceive of the death of a nation."
There five key signs that heralds the imminent death of a country namely: dwindling economy and fortune, high level corruption, restive society, citizens disenchantment with the state and government, and dwindling strength of the military.
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All this signs are currently manifest in the state of Nigeria.
Dwindling Economy
Nigeria's economy is shrinking and its fortune declining. Couple of the days ago, Nigeria's Finance Minister Dr. Ngozi Okojo-Iweala, for the first time confirmed that the country is having cash flow problems. She intimated that the country has some money in the reserve that could last it for another 3 months. However, she warned that if the price of oil continues to drop below the $80 budget price, Nigeria would be in a deep financial mess. This is coming on the heels of the announce by Ghanaian president, John Dramani Mahama, that would stop buying Nigeria's natural gas. Currently the United States, which used to be one of Nigeria's biggest crude oil buyers have stopped buying in the advent of shale gas.
High Level Corruption
Corruption is a catalyst that facilitates the decline of a country's economic fortunes. majority of Nigeria's revenue have been stolen by its past leaders, politicians and their friends. Bulk of the stolen have however been stashed in foreign banks and as a result, inhabitants of the country are in penury and live rough. Corruption cripples every sector in the country and nothing seem to work. Ever since the 'independence' of the country from British rule in 1960, corruption has marred the growth of the country.
Restive Society
'Nigerians' have been put through hell. More that 50% of the country's 200 million citizens are living below poverty line. Millions of youths including graduates are unemployed. In a dying country, citizens out of desperation usually turn to unethical behavior, including criminal acts and violent behaviours. These are currently rife in Nigeria. A quick look at Nigeria's dailies will reveal various atrocious acts being perpetrated by desperate citizens in order to survive. People are feeling highly insecure, especially with the Boko Haram insurgency, and the plot to impose Islam on every part of the country. The good news is that the people are rebounding. People are increasingly becoming disenchanted with the state and the government. A quick look through the various social networking platforms would reveal the level of animousity the people bear towards the state and the government. Interestingly, the Indigenous People of Biafra have increased their quest for freedom from the shackles of Nigeria. Biafrans have seen the handwriting on the wall and wouldn't want to be dragged to untimely death with Nigeria.
Dwindling Military Strength
It is no longer news that Nigeria's military strength has been eroded by decades of corrupt practices, ethnic and religious sentiments, and nepotism. The one time strong Nigeria Army that was a stabilising force in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was another strong point that used to go for it in international politics have become rag-tagged and underfunded through corruption and have therefore lost its strategic relevance. As it stands United States and other countries have nothing to lose with the breakup of Nigeria, and would quickly realign with any nationality that offers it what it wants. The inevitable breakup of Nigeria is imminent to discerning minds. Whether that would come in a violent or peaceful way depends on the government and people of Nigeria. Already there are indications that tilt the pendulum towards the violent side. Increasing Boko Haram attacks and attempts to extend the attacks to the Southern part of Nigeria will be a catalyst to the breakup as it can only end up waking up some southerners who still believe in the illusion of One Nigeria. For instance, bombs going off in any part of the southeast will galvanise the people into a formidable force and strengthen the ongoing quest for the restoration of the Republic of Biafra.
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